The variance risk premium represents the compensation paid to index option sellers for the risk of losses following upward movements in realized market return volatility. Common wisdom connects these spikes with elevated uncertainty on economic fundamentals. I incorporate this link within a...

This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1-2019Q4. The adaptive learning model...

This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillips curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality...