This paper proposes a coherent multi-population approach to mortality forecasting for less developed countries. The majority of these countries have witnessed faster mortality declines among the young and the working age populations during the past few decades, whereas in the more developed...

This paper studies count processes in Insurance, in which we allow the underlying risk factor to be partially unobservable and potentially time-varying. We propose a Poisson model with a stochastic intensity, or dynamic frailty process. It is based on an autoregressive gamma process, which...

This paper proposes a multi-population approach to forecasting mortality rates for the less developed countries in a coherent way. The majority of these countries have witnessed faster mortality declines among the young and the working age population, whereas in developed countries, the...

This paper shows that the term structure of conditional, or predictive distributions allows for closed form expression in a large family of (possibly higher-order, or infinite order) thinning-based count processes such as INAR(p), INARCH(p), NBAR(p), and INGARCH(1,1). Very often, such predictive...