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We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to … forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments …. -- Learning ; heterogeneous expectations ; genetic algorithms ; experimental economics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
expectations rule. Subjects are less likely to make conditionally optimal production decision for given forecasts in treatment 3 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172774
. Subjects are less likely to make conditionally optimal production decision for given forecasts in treatment 3) where the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175810
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979397
The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the … macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the … sentiment, defined as the degrees of excess optimism and pessimism that cannot be justified by the near-rational learning model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
The paper studies a dynamic communication game in the presence of adverse selection and career concerns. A forecaster of privately known competence, who cares about his reputation, chooses the timing of the forecast regarding the outcome of some future event. We find that in all equilibria in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859563
research has not examined whether individual differences in insular sensitivity predict learning to avoid aversive stimuli. In … that in addition to correlating with self-reported anxiety, heightened insular sensitivity may promote learning to avoid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014191063
, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means of laboratory experiments with human subjects. Three aggregate outcomes are … experimental data. A simple heterogeneous expectations switching model fits individual learning as well as aggregate macro behavior … effects on inflation in our experimental economies, although convergence can be slow in presence of evolutionary learning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036084