This paper documents that the housing cycle, measured by the residential investment share, is a strong in-sample and … out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to twelve quarters. Housing construction is negatively associated with risk … nontradable housing consumption. The predictability for excess returns in foreign currencies and other assets arises endogenously …

predict housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. We are interested in whether local business confidence indicators … possible to detect when using full-sample estimation information. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20 …