We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...

We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts for asset return prediction in a specific region of support. We develop a new technique that takes into account model uncertainty by assigning weights to individual predictive densities using a scoring rule based on the censored...

We propose exible models for multivariate realized volatility dynamics which involve generalizations of the Box-Cox transform to the matrix case. The matrix Box-Cox model of realized covariances (MBC-RCov) is based on transformations of the covariance matrix eigenvalues, while for the Box-Cox...