Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross domestic product. We introduce the first leading...

We follow the idea of exploiting cross-sectional information to improve recession probability forecasts by aggregating indicator-specific turning point predictions to obtain economy-wide recession probabilities. This stands in contrast to most of the relevant literature, which relies on an...

Der Artikel stellt eine neue Methode zur Messung der makroökonomischen, d.h. gesamtwirtschaftlichen Unsicherheit für Deutschland vor. Das hier dargestellte Maß verhält sich im Vergleich zu den bisher in der Literatur vorgeschlagenen Alternativen deutlich weniger volatil.

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses and forecastencompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators...

In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...