Exchange market pressure (EMP) measures the pressure on a currencyto depreciate. It adds to the actual depreciation a weightedcombination of policy instruments used to ward off depreciation,such as interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, where theweights are their effectiveness. The...

A class of adaptive sampling methods is introduced for efficient posterior and predictive simulation. The proposed methods are robust in the sense that they can handle target distributions that exhibit non-elliptical shapes such as multimodality and skewness. The basic method makes use of...

The mean squared prediction error of the linear regression model is examined when estimation is performed with instrumental variables. It is shown that increasing the number of instruments in the estimation procedure, can reduce the mean squared prediction error of the model through more...

Using quantile regression this paper explores predictability of the stock and bond return distributions as a function of economic state variables. The use of quantile regression allows us to examine specific parts of the return distribution such as the tails and the center, and for a...

This paper proposes a method to interpret factors which are otherwise difficult to assign economic meaning to by utilizing a threshold factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. We observe the frequency of the factor loadings being induced to zero when they fall below the estimated...