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A principal component simulation of age-specific fertility : impacts of family and social policy on reproductive behavior in Germany

Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp - 2018

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247

Stochastic population analysis : a functional data approach

Fang, Lei; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2015

Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477583

The Impact of Pandemic on Fertility in Russia : A Few Assumptions for the Forecast

Kazenin, Konstantin - 2021

fertility in developed countries. The significance of the outcome of these studies is under consideration designed to forecast … changes in fertility resulted from the pandemic in Russia, as well as to plan state policies to support fertility under the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230257

Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system

Härdle, Wolfgang; Mysickova, Alena - 2009

for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and … indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814452