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temporal correlation in default rates through autocorrelation in the systemic factor. Implications for the predictability of …. A robustness exercise, weakening the prior on the asset correlation, illustrates that the correlation indicated by the …
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correlation between the business and credit cycles. And we decompose the business cycle into a trend and a cycle using Hodrick …
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their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we show …
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