We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as … forecast models currently in use at the Bank of Finland and improves our understanding of household debt trends in Finland. …

We analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish … macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt is related to the … damped. Thus, there is a link between rapid household debt growth and increase in probabilities of more severe downturns. We …

the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances is uncertain. The change of the macroeconomic and …