In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We … propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises … information to predict domestic unemployment rates, at least for these last seven countries …

state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The …

Die große Wirtschaftskrise hat bisher nur verhaltene Spuren am Arbeitsmarkt hinterlassen. Angesichts der unsicheren … erwarten viele Beobachter zum Herbst einen dramatischen Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit mit einer baldigen Überschreitung der Vier … den Sommermonaten August und September aller Voraussicht nach völlig ruhig. Saisonal bedingt geht die Arbeitslosigkeit …

In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the … information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows …

unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time-series properties … benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment. …

unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. Compared to the existing literature, our model simultaneously provides estimates of the … unemployment. More precisely, the proposed approach improves upon competing models in tracking the actual evolution of the real …

In this work the precision and stability of the forecasts of Chile's unemployment rates are analyzed. Said models were … the signs of persistence that the unemployment indicator shows in its behavior; nevertheless, starting from the estimation … obtained, which empirically upholds the proposal of addressing the unemployment rate as a non stationary series. The evaluation …