The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the … macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the … formation of expectations at the micro-level, by focusing on individual expectations and, in particular, trying to account for …

Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using … of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the policy rate. We show that a simple unobserved components model of … the trend and cycle explains the joint behavior of both consensus measures of expectations and the observed disagreement …

Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative … macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic … behaviour of these expectations. We show that the introduction of survey and financial market-based forecasts in the estimation …

macroeconomic variables and their corresponding expectations. In the empirical analysis, we exploit direct data on expectations from … surveys. To explain the joint evolution of realized variables and expectations, we adopt a DSGE-VAR approach, which allows us … failure of New Keynesian models under the rational expectations hypothesis to account for the dynamic interactions between …

gains to form their expectations. Using this framework, I successfully reproduce various stylized facts from the empirical …