We investigate the information content of business tendency surveys for key macroeconomic variables in Switzerland. To summarise the information of a large data set of sectoral business tendency surveys we extract a small number of common factors by a principal components estimator. The...

We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...

This study developed an investment framework to implement dynamic factor rotation strategies according to changes in economic conditions. I constructed a useful macro indicator that tracked real-time business cycles of the US economy and applied a trend-filtering method to the indicator to...