intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting … extreme trimmed-mean measure - the median CPI - improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and personal … consumption expenditures) across our set of monthly and quarterly BVARs. Although the inflation forecasting improvements are …

In 2016 the Central Bank of Argentina began to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing authorities with … desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation for Argentina, which includes autoregressive … can improve the forecast ability of the univariate autoregressive benchmark’s model of inflation. The Giacomini-White test …