In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the...

In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 115 indicators to predict the housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. Above all, we are interested in whether the local business confidence indicators can allow substantially improving the forecasts, given the local nature of the...

The role of the housing market in the everyday life of society is difficult to overestimate. The housing rents and prices directly affect standard of living of virtually every person. Housing loans constitute the largest liability of households and account for a large proportion of bank lending....

We have combined a simple demographic model and the 58 sector econometric simulation and forecasting model INFORGE (Interindustry Forecasting Germany) which has been successfully used in different areas, e.g. modelling the effects of CO2 taxes and the liberalisation of the IT market on the...

Does the onset of violent turmoil in an immigrant’s country of origin affect their honesty in economic exchange? We test this question using Egyptian cab drivers in NYC. Native country turmoil could increase demand for remittances or spur anger or anxiety, which could boost cheating, as both...

This paper demonstrates that citizens in seven advanced industrialized democracies generally oppose more open immigration policies, but stand ready to admit individual immigrants. Using an experimental design, we demonstrate the applicability of the “person-positivity bias” to immigration...