Evidence from a large and growing empirical literature strongly suggests that there have been changes in inflation and … structural analysis, there is little evidence on their usefulness in forecasting UK output growth, inflation and the short … models in forecasting output growth, inflation and a short rate. We find that allowing for time-varying parameters can lead …

We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances …-term inflation target, and the incidence of recession and slow growth. The forecasting performance of the GVAR model in relation to …

out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. GDP growth and inflation suggests that models that allow for parameter …