Showing 1 - 10 of 15,488
We examine the performance of volatility models that incorporate features such as long (short) memory, regime …-t). Second, we perform a comprehensive panel forecasting analysis of the MSM models as well as other competing volatility models … over the alternative volatility models in terms of mean absolute forecast errors and that (iii) forecast combinations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003864486
This study examines the statistical properties required to model the dynamics of both the returns and volatility series … adequately estimate long-memory dynamics in returns and volatility. The in-sample diagnostic tests as well as out … offers an interesting framework to describe the long-range dependence in returns and seasonal persistence to shocks in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272684
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
market uncertainty and volatility of the investment instruments. Thus, the prediction of the uncertainty and volatilities of … to identify the best fit model that can predict the volatility of return of Bitcoin, which is in high demand as an … the residuals of the average equation model selected have ARCH effect. Volatility of Bitcoin return series after detection …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382180
This study aims at comparing Google Search Volume Indices (GSVIs—including market crash and bear market) and VIX (Investor Fear Gauge Index) in terms of explaining the S&P 500 returns. The VIX is found a more robust predictor of stock market returns than Google indices, and it does granger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011886968
stock of recent theoretical insights on this model in Duchon et al. (2012) to derive forecasts of financial volatility … the RV framework. We compare the predictive ability of the two against seven classical and multifractal volatility models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012672178
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490993
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054678
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034867