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Behavioral Finance - Asset Prices Predictability, Equity Premium Puzzle, Volatility Puzzle : The Rational Finance Approach

Rachev, Svetlozar T. - 2020

In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as … “anomalies” the theory of rational finance cannot explain: (i) Predictability of asset returns; (ii) The Equity Premium; (iii … are the only possible explanations of the “anomalies”, but offer statistical models within the rational theory of finance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842392

Complexity in Factor Pricing Models

Didisheim, Antoine; Ke, Shikun; Kelly, Bryan T.; … - 2023

We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance—in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and average pricing errors—is improving in model parameterization (or “complexity”). Our results predict that the best...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254198

Momentum, Reversals, and other Puzzles in Fama-MacBeth Cross-Sectional Regressions

Kamstra, Mark J. - 2017

The existence of reversals and momentum in equity returns has challenged proponents of efficient markets for over 30 … years. Although explanations for momentum profits based on cross-sectional mean return dispersion have been proposed … apparent momentum when there is, in fact, none. This biased implementation of the Fama-MacBeth procedure has found its way into …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959272

Combination Return Forecasts and Portfolio Allocation with the Cross-Section of Book-to-Market Ratios

Detzel, Andrew L. - 2017

In this paper, we forecast industry returns out-of-sample using the cross-section of book-to-market ratios and investigate whether investors can exploit this predictability in portfolio allocation. Cash-flow and return forecasting regressions show that cross-industry book-to-market ratios...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968901

Ambiguity, long-run risks, and asset prices

Wei, Bin - 2021

I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667

Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing

Cotter, John; Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel; Potì, Valerio - 2020

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418356

Principal portfolios

Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Pedersen, Lasse Heje - 2020 - This version: June 8, 2020

We propose a new asset-pricing framework in which all securities' signals are used to predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on each security's own- signal predictability, assuming an equal strength across securities, our framework is flexible and includes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271188

Predictability and the cross-section of expected returns : a challenge for asset pricing models

Schlag, Christian; Semenischev, Michael; Thimme, Julian - 2020 - This version: August 28, 2020

Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test for the ability of such a model to explain the cross-section of expected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271368

Why does return predictability concentrate in bad times?

Cujean, Julien; Hasler, Michael - 2017

-series momentum, which strengthens in bad times, increases with disagreement, and crashes after sharp market rebounds. We provide …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Sharpe Ratios of Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models

Kan, Raymond - 2020

For many multi-factor asset pricing models proposed in the recent literature, their implied tang-ency portfolios have substantially higher sample Sharpe ratios than that of the value-weighted market portfolio. In contrast, such high sample Sharpe ratio is rarely delivered by professional fund...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847739

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