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This paper examines the relation between firm-level implied volatility skew and the likelihood of extreme negative … events, or crash risk. I show that volatility skew identifies which firms are likely to experience crashes, but only in short …-window earnings announcement periods. The predictive power is incremental to the information in historical volatility, financial …
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We develop a measure of how information events impact investors' perceptions of risk that is broadly applicable and simple to implement. We derive this measure from an option-pricing model where investors anticipate an announcement that simultaneously conveys information on the announcer's...
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