This paper proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecast methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: Under the null hypothesis, the benchmark's conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors,...

This paper considers forecast combination with factor-augmented regression. In this framework, a large number of forecasting models are available, varying by the choice of factors and the number of lags. We investigate forecast combination across models using weights that minimize the Mallows...

This paper considers forecast combination with factor-augmented regression. In this framework, a large number of forecasting models are available, varying by the choice of factors and the number of lags. We investigate forecast combination using weights that minimize the Mallows and the...