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-specific macro indicators during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Macro fundamentals explain 66% of the time-series variance of …. Hence, while CDS spreads reflect macro fundamentals, they also display volatility unrelated to fundamentals. We identify … sensitivities predict the VSTOXX European equity volatility index out of sample …
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The benefits of using flight-to-safety (FTS) in volatility forecasting are assessed within a multivariate GARCH … volatility. Moreover, when comparing with a benchmark and controlling for data snooping, we find that the proposed model yields …
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