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' responsiveness in the long run. Using an online experiment, we assess how false alarm and missed alarm-prone forecast systems …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053857
possible that the gender effect on dishonesty is moderated by cognitive reflection. Here we report a large online experiment (N …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918518
of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
laboratory experiment in which the participants act as forecasters and are asked to predict the next realisation of iid random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999
Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
heterogeneous forecasting heuristics, to explain coordination of individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior observed in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118974
We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561
In this paper, we report the design and results of an experiment in human judgment in which decision makers were …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053089
method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027098
The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036084