While brokerage houses use both teams of sell-side analysts and individual analysts to conduct earnings research, there is no empirical research examining if teams and individuals differ with regard to their forecasting performance or purpose, and if so, how and why. We first examine the...

We investigate the extent to which market participants use compensation payouts released in the DEF 14A proxy statement (DEF14A) to assess future firm performance by examining sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts. Consistent with prior work, we confirm that CEO compensation unexplained by...

We investigate the extent to which market participants use compensation payouts released in the DEF 14A proxy statement (DEF14A) to assess future firm performance by examining sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts. Consistent with prior work, we confirm that CEO compensation unexplained by...

The state of the art in the analyst forecasting literature is that analyst earnings forecast ability is only firm-specific (Chen, Francis, and Jiang (2005); Chen and Jiang (2006)). This view is based on Park and Stice's (2000) finding of the absence of a “spillover” effect, i.e., investors...

We find that CEOs issue significantly more favorable management earnings forecasts (MEFs), relative to the prevailing analyst consensus, to boost stock prices when approaching performance evaluation end dates. The effect is more pronounced for firms with lower past stock returns and when award...

We examine the predictive information content of the management forecasts of stock return volatility (i.e., expected volatility) that are disclosed in annual reports. We find that expected volatility predicts near-term and longer-term stock return volatility and earnings volatility incremental...

This paper examines whether financial statement information can predict future realized volatility incremental to the volatility implied by option market prices. Prior research establishes that option-implied volatility is a biased estimator of future realized volatility. I use an analytical...

Financial institutions and academic researchers utilize bankruptcy prediction models to assess distress risk. However, predicting default can be problematic since (i) few firms actually experience default in any one year, (ii) the lag between practical and actual default can vary significantly,...

This paper examines the relation between firm-level implied volatility skew and the likelihood of extreme negative events, or crash risk. I show that volatility skew identifies which firms are likely to experience crashes, but only in short-window earnings announcement periods. The predictive...

We predict the portfolio of COVID-19 vaccination drivers through a large set of Machine Learning techniques for 5 European countries. Risk perceptions matter, on top of citizens’ trust anchored in how institutions have been performing to fight the pandemic before vaccine discovery. We also...