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This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990919
panel cointegration techniques to derive fully countryspecific measures of misalignment and measures based on panel …-of-sample performance prior to comparing it to two final panel specifications. Robustness of the results is supported by recently introduced … cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root tests by Pesaran (2007) and bootstrapped error correction-based panel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374380
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199463
panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates …. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010358150
We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to poverty using cross-sectional data and panel … data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and … on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009671469
This paper promotes the use of panel data in nowcasting. We shift the existing focus of the literature, which has … propose a mixed-frequency panel VAR model and a bias-corrected least squares (BCLS) estimator which attenuates the bias … inherent to fixed effects dynamic panel settings. We demonstrate how existing panel model selection and combination methods can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864837
choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184201
of conditional information, and reviews an arbitrage pricing theory for large dimensional factor models in this framework …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012101166
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forecast evaluation; provides additional Monte Carlo simulation results on GARCH model estimation and VaR prediction; extends …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138328