We study the effects of the predictability in stock returns for the fair value of American Executive Stock Options (ESOs). By assuming a trending Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for stock returns, we solve for the executive's optimal exercise policy using a methodology based on the least-squares...

We re-visit a puzzling result that in U.S. post-WW II data the dividend price ratio can predict aggregate returns but not dividend growth. We find that predictive regressions are sensitive to the method used to aggregate firm-level data. Using value weighted firm-level data we find strong...

There is a generalized conviction that variation in dividend yields is exclusively related to expected returns and not to expected dividend growth - e.g. Cochrane's presidential address (Cochrane (2011)). We show that this pattern, although valid for the aggregate stock market, is not true for...

I study real effects of uncertainty shocks. Using time-varying volatility of the forecast error, I construct a two-part uncertainty metric that consists of persistent and volatile, burstlike components. These indices are used to study empirically several predictions of uncertainty models: that...

I examine the predictability of dividend cuts based on the time interval between dividend announcement dates using a large dataset of U.S. firms from 1971 to 2014. The longer the time interval between dividend announcements, the larger the probability of a cut in the dividend per share,...

We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries

We develop a discrete choice recursive model that classifies companies with and without dividend reinvestment plans with 72.0% accuracy. Misclassified companies are more likely to switch their plan status within the next five years, suggesting that financial statements foreshadow changes in plan...

This article documents how the changing composition of U.S. publicly traded firms has prompted a decline in the long-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend–price ratio for such changes resolves several issues with respect to the...

This article documents how the changing composition of U.S. publicly traded firms has prompted a decline in the long-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend-price ratio for such changes resolves several issues with respect to the...

We find that earnings announcements that follow equity issues and buyback announcements have predictable market reactions. Four-factor abnormal returns to earnings following buyback announcements are higher by 5.1% than similar returns to earnings following equity issues over the (-1,+30)...