I present evidence that the linear mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR provides very sharp and well calibrated monthly real-time recession probabilities for the euro area for the period from 2004 until 2013. The model outperforms not only the univariate regime-switching models for a number of hard and...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of volatility time structures in agricultural markets (sugar, wheat, soybeans and coffee) for a time period from 2008 to 2016. The time period covers at least three food crises which make the analysis interesting for both researches and policy makers. In...