In this paper we study the development of interest rate risk premium and option implied state price densities in the Euribor futures option market. Using parametric and non-parametric statistical calibration, we transform the risk-neutral option implied densities for the Euribor futures rate...

Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility 'smile.' My objective in this paper is to identify implied probability distributions that might explain this...

In this paper, we present a novel method to extract the risk-neutral probability of default from American put option prices. Under the assumptions of Carr and Wu (2011), we derive a closed form expression for American put options from which the probability of default can be inferred. Our...

We document that a theoretically founded, real-time, and easy-to-implement option-based measure, termed synthetic-stock difference (SSD), accurately estimates the part of stock's expected return arising from stock's transaction costs. We calculate SSD for U.S. optionable stocks. SSD can be more...

We apply a two-step strategy to forecast the dynamics of the volatility surface implicit in option prices to all American-style options written on the stocks that have entered the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index between 2004 and 2016. We explore whether the implied volatilities extracted...

This paper introduces a new numerical option pricing method by fast recursive projections. The projection step consists in representing the payoff and the state price density with a fast discrete transform based on a simple grid sampling. The recursive step consists in transmitting coefficients...

We propose an integrated model of the joint dynamics of FX rates and asset prices for the pricing of FX derivatives, including Quanto products; the model is based on a multivariate construction for Levy processes which proves to be analytically tractable. The approach allows for simultaneous...

In this article, the Universal Approximation Theorem of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is applied to the SABR stochastic volatility model in order to construct highly efficient representations. Initially, the SABR approximation of Hagan et al. [2002] is considered, then a more accurate...

This article proposes a simple and intuitive framework to combine a discrete volatility forecast series produced by a GARCH model with the binomial tree methodology to price path-dependent options. The framework exploits the premise of the path integral methodology of combining the terminal...

In this paper we apply the multivariate construction for Lévy processes introduced by Ballotta and Bonfiglioli (2014) to propose an integrated model for the joint dynamics of FX exchange rates and asset prices. We show that the proposed construction is consistent in terms of symmetries with...