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This article proposes a simple and intuitive framework to combine a discrete volatility forecast series produced by a …-combining binomial trees that capture the distributional properties of the volatility forecasts. Finally, the framework is employed to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021590
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011714363
Correlation models, such as Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model or Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC … constant correlation tests into correlation models has been proven to be helpful in terms of the improvement of the accuracy of … VaR or ES forecasts. Galeano & Wied (2017) suggested an algorithms for detecting structural breaks in the correlation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013171617
The study aimed at determining a set of superior generalized orthogonal-GARCH (GO-GARCH) models for forecasting time-varying conditional correlations and variances of five foreign exchange rates vis-à-vis the Nigerian Naira. Daily data covering the period 02/01/2009 to 19/03/2015 was used, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011534717
leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The … leverage hypothesis asserts that return shocks lead to changes in conditional volatility, while the volatility feedback effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856
frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long … that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low frequency economic variables … improves the empirical fit of equity correlations in the US and correlation forecasts at long horizons. -- Factor models ; Low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
This paper proposes a latent dynamic factor model for low- as well as high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The approach is based on the matrix logarithm and allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns by combining common latent factors driven by HAR dynamics and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341025
We propose exible models for multivariate realized volatility dynamics which involve generalizations of the Box … covariance matrix eigenvalues, while for the Box-Cox dynamic correlation (BC-DC) specification the variances are transformed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344500
This paper analyzes the forecast accuracy of the multivariate realized volatility model introduced by Chiriac and Voev …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132544
This paper proposes a new class of multivariate volatility model that utilising high-frequency data. We call this model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009351