systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and insurance companies. We predict firms' systemic relevance as the marginal … impact of individual downside risks on systemic distress. The so-called systemic risk betas account for a company's position … general market conditions. Relying only on publicly available daily market data, we determine time-varying systemic risk …

Risk estimation or volatility estimation at financial markets, particularly stock exchange markets, is complex issue of … pricing of stocks and better risk management. The aim of this research is to test applicability of simple models like Simple … Moving Average (SMA) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) to estimate risk. The performance of SMA and EWMA with …

loss risk. This study uses geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and Value at Risk (VaR; with the Monte Carlo Simulation approach …) on the daily closing price of JKII from 1 August 2020-13 August 2021 to predict the price and loss risk of JKII at 16 … 2.03%. Then, using VaR with a Monte Carlo Simulation approach, the loss risk prediction for 16 August 2021 (one …

environment interspersed by corrections increasing in amplitude and frequency. This calls for more adaptive dynamic risk … risk that should accurately be estimated is crash risk.This article applies the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS …) model of endogenous asset price bubbles to monitor crash risk. The model is calibrated to 15 years market history for five …

its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up … from statistical decision theory to overcome the problem of "elicitability" for ES by jointly modelling ES and VaR, and … propose new dynamic models for these risk measures. We provide estimation and inference methods for the proposed models, and …

estimators of market risk. Despite advances in the theory and practice of evaluating risk, existing measures are notoriously poor … extreme value theory (EVT) to propose a multivariate estimation procedure for value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES …The catastrophic failures of risk management systems in 2008 bring to the forefront the need for accurate and flexible …

In this study we consider the risk estimation as a stochastic process based on the Sample Quantile Process (SQP …) - which is a generalization of the Value-at-Risk calculated on a rolling sample. Using SQP's, we are able to show and quantify … the pro-cyclicality of the current way financial institutions measure their risk. Analysing 11 stock indices, we show that …

The recent financial crisis has raised numerous questions about the accuracy of value-at-risk (VaR) as a tool to …

We define risk spillover as the dependence of a given asset variance on the past covariances and variances of other … international equity portfolio. According to the risk management strategy proposed, portfolio risk is seen as a specific combination … currencies. In this framework, we focus on the risk spillovers across equities within the same sector (sector spillover), and …