The paper makes use of conventional manpower and educational planning methods by formulating and applying a forecasting model of labour imbalances in terms of demand and supply for occupational types and educational levels. The aim of public policy is to close the gaps in the absence of labour...

This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...

A fundamental assumption of expected utility models is that agents make predictions by formulating rational expectations. Building on this assumption, the literature has addressed to what extent rational choice or behaviorally informed utility models best describe intertemporal substitution of...

We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and nowcasting the US output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important cyclical information, it also appears to reflect more persistent movements...