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Corporate Bond Moments and Predictability of Equity Returns
Li, Sophia Zhengzi; Yuan, Peixuan; Zhou, Guofu - 2023
We document that the first and third cross-sectional moments of corporate bond returns significantly and positively predict future stock market returns both in- and out-of-sample. The predictability emerges from informed bond trading and gradual diffusion of information. Particularly, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257015
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Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?
Maghyereh, Aktham I.; Abdoh, Hussein - In: Financial innovation : FIN 8 (2022), pp. 1-29
This study examines the role of market sentiment in predicting the price bubbles of four strategic metal commodities (gold, silver, palladium, and platinum) from January 1985 to August 2020. It is the first to investigate this topic using sentiment indices, including news-based economic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272710
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Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy
Jank, Stephan - 2011 - First draft: December 4, 2010, This draft: February 7, 2011
The paper explores whether the co-movement of market returns and equity fund flows can be explained by a common response to macroeconomic news. I find that variables that predict the real economy as well as the equity premium are related to mutual fund flows. Changes in dividend-price ratio...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008902922
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Momentum trading, return chasing, and predictable crashes
Chabot, Benjamin; Ghysels, Eric; Jagannathan, Ravi - 2014
We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies - momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns - a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010442553
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Behavioral Finance - Asset Prices Predictability, Equity Premium Puzzle, Volatility Puzzle : The Rational Finance Approach
Rachev, Svetlozar T. - 2020
In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as … “anomalies” the theory of rational finance cannot explain: (i) Predictability of asset returns; (ii) The Equity Premium; (iii … are the only possible explanations of the “anomalies”, but offer statistical models within the rational theory of finance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842392
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Extrapolation Bias and the Predictability of Stock Returns by Price-Scaled Variables
Cassella, Stefano - 2017
Using survey data on expectations of future stock returns, we recursively estimate the degree of extrapolative weighting in investors' beliefs (DOX). In an extrapolation framework, DOX determines the relative weight investors place on recent-versus-distant past returns. DOX varies considerably...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970801
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Momentum Trading, Return Chasing and Predictable Crashes
Chabot, Benjamin Remy - 2014
We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies — momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns — a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040026
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Momentum Trading, Return Chasing and Predictable Crashes
Chabot, Benjamin Remy - 2014
We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies — momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns — a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044802
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A Dynamic Factor Model Applied to Investor Sentiment in the European Context
Nogueira Reis, Pedro; Pinho, Carlos - 2021
This paper proposes an Investor Sentiment Index for the European market and tests its predictability power over returns and volatility. The constructed Investor Sentiment Index for Europe draws upon three well-established and two recent individual sentiment proxies through a novel dynamic factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349029
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Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance
Gagliardini, Patrick; Ossola, Elisa; Scaillet, Olivier - 2019 - This version: August 2019
of conditional information, and reviews an arbitrage pricing theory for large dimensional factor models in this framework …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012101166