the term structure of government bond yields, the arbitrage-free model we proposed is the extension of the arbitrage … capture a more accurate real-time estimate of inflation expectation on the basis of financial markets, we propose an arbitrage … modelling the nominal and inflation-indexed bond yields jointly for each country. The Nelson-Siegel model is popular in fitting …

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond returns. The main predictor factors are associated with point … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …

observed government bond yields and survey-based expected average short rates. Our term premiums measured directly based on … rates, and uncover a number of important facts: 1) the bulk of the variation in medium- and long-term bond yields is driven … shocks playing the most prominent role; and 5) the secular decline of U.S. long-term bond yields over the past thirty years …

This research investigates the macro factors for forecasting (1) bond risk premia and (2) term structure of government … bond yields by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on empirical prior. Different from the traditional variable … further improve the other method's forecasting performance. The performance of using BMA to forecast bond excess return is …

This paper investigates the optimal bond portfolio choice of an investor in a model that captures both the failure of … bond returns. I estimate a daily multifactor affine term structure model with a large set of unrevised macroeconomic data … in which one of the state variables is unspanned by the contemporaneous yield curve. By characterizing the optimal bond …

Bond market order flow contains information about future yield changes that is not incorporated into the current yield … tiers of the Norwegian government bond market, enables the paper to investigate the sources of predictability. Forecasts … based on individual bond dealer order flow suggest that customer type, rather than the size of the customer base, is one of …

instabilities in the linkages between bond risk premia and macroeconomic factors …

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using … excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve … both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market …