We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its...

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy...

We consider whether imposing long-run restrictions on survey respondents' long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions are motivated by the belief that the macro-variables consumption, investment and output move together in the long run, and that this should be evident in...