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Crude oil futures trading and uncertainty
Czudaj, Robert L. - 2018
This paper examines the effect of different dimensions of uncertainty on expectations of WTI crude oil futures momentum traders at a daily level. We consider two concepts of uncertainty and two momentum trading indicators based on technical analysis. In addition, we also use wavelet techniques...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979326
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Volatility Forecasting Across Tanker Freight Rates : The Role of Oil Price Shocks
Gavriilidis, Konstantinos - 2019
of GARCH-X models improves the accuracy of their volatility forecasts for spot and 1-year time-charter tanker freight … of the volatility forecasts drawn …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893144
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The Variance Risk Premium in Crude Oil Futures Markets : Incorporating the OVX Time Series in a Stochastic Volatility Model
Le Grand, Francois; Schneider, Lorenz - 2022
In this paper we propose a stochastic volatility model for crude oil markets that has the particularity to feature a … OVX volatility data. The model characterizes two states: a normal state with low volatility and negative variance premium … and acrisis state with high volatility and positive variance risk premium. The estimated states are consistent with GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307498
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Forecasting volatility in oil returns using asymmetric GARCH models : evidence from Tanzania
Letema, Laban Gaspe; Mbwambo, Haika Andrew - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281963
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Oil price forecasting using crack spread futures and oil exchange traded funds
Choi, Hankyeung; Leatham, David J.; Sukcharoen, Kunlapath - In: Contemporary economics 9 (2015) 1, pp. 29-44
Given the emerging consensus from previous studies that crude oil and refined product (as well as crack spread) prices are cointegrated, this study examines the link between the crude oil spot and crack spread derivatives markets. Specifically, the usefulness of the two crack spread derivatives...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010520870
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Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance : an empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market
Chang, Kuang-liang - In: Energy economics 34 (2012) 1, pp. 294-306
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618842
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Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data
Sévi, Benoît - In: European journal of operational research : EJOR 235 (2014) 3, pp. 643-659
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341244
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Forecasting crude oil price volatility via a HM-EGARCH model
Lin, Yu; Yang, Xiaoming; Li, Fuxing - In: Energy economics 87 (2020), pp. 1-13
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012512591
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A novel hybrid approach to forecast crude oil futures using intraday data
Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan; Visalakshmi, S.; … - In: Technological forecasting & social change : an … 158 (2020), pp. 1-11
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012516847
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On realized volatility of crude oil futures markets : forecasting with exogenous predictors under structural breaks
Luo, Jiawen; Ji, Qiang; Klein, Tony; Todorova, Neda; … - In: Energy economics 89 (2020), pp. 1-15
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517048