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Constructing a composite indicator to assess cyclical systemic risks : an early warning approach
Koponen, Heidi - 2024
The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014526680
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Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability : Partial Least Squares Factor Model Approach
Kim, Hyeongwoo - 2017
We present a factor augmented forecasting model for assessing the financial vulnerability in Korea. Dynamic factor models often extract latent common factors from a large panel of time series data via the method of the principal components (PC). Instead, we employ the partial least squares (PLS)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957157
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Early warning signals of financial crises with multi-scale quantile regressions of log-periodic power law singularities
Zhang, Qun; Zhang, Qunzhi; Sornette, Didier - 2015
We augment the existing literature using the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) structures in the log-price dynamics to diagnose financial bubbles by providing three main innovations. First, we introduce the quantile regression to the LPPLS detection problem. This allows us to disentangle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011412424
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To What Extent are Financial Crises Comparable and Thus Predictable?
Diamondopoulos, John - 2013
implications for the development of a theory of financial crises and government policies on crisis management …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084193
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On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios : international evidence
Conrad, Christian; Stürmer, Karin - 2017 - This version: May 31, 2017
Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification that allows the long-term correlation component to be a function of multiple explanatory variables, we show that the stock-bond correlation in the US, the UK, Germany, France, and Italy is mainly driven by inflation and interest rate expectations as well...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011745369
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Identifying indicators of systemic risk
Hartwig, Benny; Meinerding, Christoph; Schüler, Yves - 2020
We operationalize the definition of systemic risk provided by the IMF, BIS, and FSB and derive testable hypotheses to identify indicators of systemic risk. We map these hypotheses into a two-stage hierarchical testing framework, combining insights from the early-warning literature on financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012234486
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A creepy world
Sornette, Didier; Cauwels, Peter - 2013
history where a small event had a cataclysmic consequence, we propose a novel view of the current state of the world via the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257508
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International tail risk and world fear
Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno; Prokopczuk, Marcel; Wese Simen, … - 2017
is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are … mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail risk. World fear is also priced in the crosssection of stock returns …. Buying stocks with high sensitivities to World Fear while selling stocks with low sensitivities generates excess returns of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251
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Anticipating the bust : a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises
Lang, Jan Hannes; Izzo, Cosimo; Fahr, Stephan; Ruzicka, … - 2019
This paper presents a tractable, transparent and broad-based domestic cyclical systemic risk indicator (d-SRI) that captures risks stemming from domestic credit, real estate markets, asset prices, and external imbalances. The d-SRI increases on average several years before the onset of systemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975914
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Exploiting spillovers to forecast crashes
Gresnigt, Francine; Kole, Erik; Franses, Philip Hans - 2015
We develop Hawkes models in which events are triggered through self as well as cross-excitation. We examine whether incorporating cross-excitation improves the forecasts of extremes in asset returns compared to only self-excitation. The models are applied to US stocks, bonds and dollar exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376256