Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household in ation expectations reveals that exposure to news on in ation and monetary policy helps to explain in ation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, their perceptions of the...

We identify a U.S.-driven factor using a monthly panel of fifteen bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar since 1999. We find this factor is closely related to nominal and real macroeconomic variables, as well as financial market variables from the U.S. Using this factor alone, we show...

We investigate the forecasting performance of popular dynamic factor models of the yield curve after the global financial crisis (GFC). This time period is characterized by an unprecedented low and non-volatile interest rate environment in most major economies. We focus on the dynamic...

In this paper we investigate the use of forecast averaging for electricity spot prices. While there is an increasing body of literature on the use of forecast combinations, there is only a small number of applications of these techniques in the area of electricity markets. In this comprehensive...

Traditional exchange rate models are based on differences in macroeconomic fundamentals. However, despite being well grounded in economic theory they have a rather poor out-of sample forecasting record. This empirical failure may be a result of the overly restrictive choice of macroeconomic...