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False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices

Hembach-Stunden, Katharina; Vorlaufer, Tobias; Engel, … - In: Q open : a journal of agricultural, climate, … 4 (2024) 1, pp. 1-22

' responsiveness in the long run. Using an online experiment, we assess how false alarm and missed alarm-prone forecast systems …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053857

Predicting and Understanding Initial Play

Fudenberg, Drew - 2019

We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561

Inject or Infect : How Do the Default Effect, Anticipated Regret, and Decision Roles Predict Vaccination Willingness

van der Loo, Imke; Stroom, Martijn - 2021

The WHO defines vaccine hesitancy as one of the ten biggest threats to global health nowadays. To contribute to finding a solution for vaccine hesitancy, this study aims at gaining new insights on the influence of the default effect, anticipated regret, and decision roles on vaccination...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210789

Ambiguity, long-run risks, and asset prices

Wei, Bin - 2021

I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667

Partially unforeseen events : corrections and correcting formulae for forecasts

Charin, Aleksandr A. - In: Expert journal of economics 2 (2014) 2, pp. 69-79

A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057407

Should Faustmann forecast climate change?

Gars, Johan; Spiro, Daniel - 2019

Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012015877

What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?

Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019

of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998

Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions

Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019

laboratory experiment in which the participants act as forecasters and are asked to predict the next realisation of iid random …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999

Traders, forecasters and financial instability : a model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics

Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2019

Behavioral and experimental literature on financial instability focuses on either subjective price expectations (Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2017) have shown that subjects have problems with both tasks. In this paper, I...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956452

How to Reveal People's Preferences : Comparing Time Consistency and Predictive Power of Multiple Price List Risk Elicitation Methods

Csermely, Tamás - 2015

method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027098

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