We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular emphasis of this paper is on assessing the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a...

Multi-fractal processes have been proposed as a new formalism for modeling the time series of returns in finance. The major attraction of these processes is their ability to generate various degrees of long memory in different powers of returns - a feature that has been found to characterize...

Multi-fractal processes have recently been proposed as a new formalism for modelling the time series of returns in finance. The major attraction of these processes is their ability to generate various degrees of long memory in different powers of returns - a feature that has been found in...

We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular emphasis of this paper is on assessing the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a...

Multifractal processes have recently been proposed as a new formalism for modelling the time series of returns in insurance. The major attraction of these processes is their ability to generate various degrees of long memory in different powers of returns - a feature that has been found in...

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...

We consider the problem of ex-ante forecasting conditional correlation patterns using ultra high frequency data. Flexible semiparametric predictors referring to the class of dynamic panel and dynamic factor models are adopted for daily forecasts. The parsimonious set up of our approach allows to...

Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...

This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...