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Empirical evidence from several countries reveals that self-rated health is a valid predictor of mortality. So far … the relationship between self-rated health and mortality for Germany. In addition the GSOEP data enable an exploration of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432793
Background: Studies from several countries have shown that self-rated health is an independent predictor of mortality … individuals and (ii) changes in self-rated health, as predictors of mortality for Germany. Methods: A sub-sample of 3 … in self-rated health on predictions of mortality. Results: We find that, while currently self-rated health is shown to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626677
incorporating the joint future developments of age-specific mortality and health prevalence rates, GDP, and the unemployment rate … unemployment rate or without taking into account the joint development of mortality and health …. We also quantify the uncertainties of (healthy) life expectancy taking into account the joint evolution of mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015155
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The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607106
We show how to construct a composite Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to calculate real-time recession probability, using the jubilee and ldhmm packages in R. The input data is the unemployment rate (UNRATE) which is released monthly by the U.S. government. There are two sub-models: The one-year...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864839
The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476550
We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914