factors have contributed to the recent decline in bond yields in the US. For that purpose, we start with a very general model … to establish a stable long-run relationship and find that the behaviour of bond rates in the last few years may well be … overestimation of bond yields is not unusual historically. Finally, our bond yield equation outperforms a random walk model in …

I analyze time series momentum along the Treasury term structure. Past bond returns predict future returns both due to … autocorrelation in bond risk premia and because unexpected bond return shocks increase the premium. Yield curve momentum is primarily … due to autocorrelation in yield changes rather than autocorrelation in bond carry and can largely be captured using a …

we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …

multivariate test for equal conditional predictive ability, can be used in real-time to improve out-of-sample bond risk premia …This paper provides empirical evidence on predictable shifts in the degree of bond return predictability. Bond returns …

This research investigates the macro factors for forecasting (1) bond risk premia and (2) term structure of government … bond yields by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on empirical prior. Different from the traditional variable … further improve the other method's forecasting performance. The performance of using BMA to forecast bond excess return is …

This paper investigates whether ETF returns lead the returns of underlying bonds and similar style bond funds. Bond … predicted, we find that ETF returns predict its own NAV returns and aggregated ETF returns for each bond also predict the … underlying bond returns on a monthly basis. We show that bond liquidity is the determining factor of the predictability and the …

Bond market order flow contains information about future yield changes that is not incorporated into the current yield … tiers of the Norwegian government bond market, enables the paper to investigate the sources of predictability. Forecasts … based on individual bond dealer order flow suggest that customer type, rather than the size of the customer base, is one of …

This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond …

statistical evidence in favor of bond return predictability. NN forecasts based on macroeconomic and yield information translate … output and income variables matter more for longer maturities. Finally, NN forecasts correlate with proxies for time …