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returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054678
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034867
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035710
stochastic volatility model in order to construct highly efficient representations. Initially, the SABR approximation of Hagan et …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907596
The nature of the relation between stock returns and the three monetary variables of interest rates (bond yields), inflation and money supply growth, while oft studied, is one that remains unclear. We argue that the nature of the relation changes over time, and this variation is largely driven...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813273
predictive variance. We show theoretically how this adjustment factor affects both average and volatility of excess returns. We … related to excess volatility as predicted by the model. Further confirming the model's implications, we also show how stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487731
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370
The contributions of error distributions have been ignored while modeling stock market volatility in Nigeria and … studies have shown that the application of appropriate error distribution in volatility model enhances efficiency of the model … asymmetric volatility models each in Normal, Student's-t and generalized error distributions with the view to selecting the best …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489480
Using well-known GARCH models for density prediction of daily S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between the qualities of the forecasts of the whole density, whereas the Bayesian approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976219
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991280