We explore the ability of traditional core inflation – consumer prices excluding food and energy – to predict headline … CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March … common wisdom about the ability of core inflation to forecast headline inflation, and suggest a careful weighting of the …

Modern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping consumers' inflation expectations. According to the concept … of inflation forecast targeting (IFT), inflation forecasts play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision …-making process and may be a specific intermediate target. The aim of the study is to analyse the credibility of inflation forecasts …

uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation …

degree. With respect to inflation, the NBP and the SNB look far into the future, while the BoE seems to concentrate on … current inflation. As to output, the BoE and the SNB take into account its future or current value while for the NBP this …

uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation …

Focusing on a set of central banks that publish inflation forecasts in real time, this paper aims to establish whether … central bank inflation forecasts influence private inflation forecasts. The response is positive in the five countries studied …

predictive densities from several alternative models of US output growth and inflation, each using eight different Divisia …