We derive stock returns for firms producing nonrenewable commodities by employing the investment-based asset pricing approach. By identifying the appropriate time-varying discount rate the investment-based approach allows an alternative test of the Hotelling Valuation Principle. The empirical...

The futures curve of an aggregate commodity portfolio is time-varying and changes from upward (contango) to downward sloping (backwardation) which implies negative or positive expected returns. The basis arises as a natural fundamental to predict commodity returns. However, the empirical...

This paper finds significant evidence that commodity price changes can predict industry-level returns for horizons between one trading day and up to six trading weeks (30 days). We find that for the 1985-2010 period, 40 out of 49 U.S. industries can be predicted by at least one commodity. Our...

We analyze the relation between volatility and speculative activities in the crude oil futures market and provide short-term forecasts accordingly. By incorporating trading volume and opening interest (speculative ratio) into the volatility dynamics, we document the subtle interaction between...

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Organized exchanges have evolved methods for enforcing contracts, which allow the contracts themselves to be traded at low cost. Theorists have modeled futures contracts as tools for risk management, despite an extensive empirical literature that does not support predictions about bias in prices...