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Commodity Return Predictability
Hammerschmid, Regina - 2018
The futures curve of an aggregate commodity portfolio is time-varying and changes from upward (contango) to downward sloping (backwardation) which implies negative or positive expected returns. The basis arises as a natural fundamental to predict commodity returns. However, the empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934777
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Volatility forecasting in commodity markets using macro uncertainty
Bakas, Dimitrios; Triantafyllou, Athanasios - In: Energy economics 81 (2019), pp. 79-94
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172661
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Forecasting Commodity Markets Volatility : HAR or Rough?
Alfeus, Mesias - 2020
Commodity is one of the most volatile markets and forecasting its volatility is an issue of paramount importance. We … study the dynamics of the commodity markets volatility by employing fractional stochastic volatility and heterogeneous … autoregressive (HAR) models. Based on a high-frequency futures price dataset of 22 commodities, we confirm that the volatility of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843920
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Forecasting volatility in commodity markets
Kroner, Kenneth F.; Kneafsey, Devin P.; Claessens, Stijn - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000143388
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Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long-term economic and financial variables
Nguyen, Duc Khuong; Walther, Thomas - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946687
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Understanding momentum in commodity markets
Chevallier, Julien; Gatumel, Mathieu; Ielpo, Florian - In: Applied economics letters 20 (2013) 13/15, pp. 1383-1402
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010203400
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The role of commodity prices in forecasting U.S. core inflation
Gospodinov, Nikolaj - 2016
This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011428084
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Can futures price be a powerful predictor? : frequency domain analysis on Chinese commodity market
Yang, Linghubo; Zhang, Dongxiang - In: Economic modelling 35 (2013), pp. 264-271
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259451
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Distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures : evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests
Jena, Sangram Keshari; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Hammoudeh, … - In: Energy economics 78 (2019), pp. 615-628
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160046
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Evaluating the effectiveness of modern forecasting models in predicting commodity futures prices in volatile economic times
Vancsura, László; Tatay, Tibor; Bareith, Tibor - In: Risks : open access journal 11 (2023) 2, pp. 1-16
The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity market. A total of two families of models (decision trees, artificial intelligence) were used to produce estimates for 2018 and 2022 for 21-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233184