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Option-based measures can predict underlying stock returns, due to differences in price discovery and price pressure effects between options and underlying stocks. We investigate stock return predictability by various option price-based measures using REITs. REITs are more transparent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012593737
frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The … leverage hypothesis asserts that return shocks lead to changes in conditional volatility, while the volatility feedback effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856
effects of highs and lows on a stock's beta and return volatility. We find that implied volatilities and stock betas decrease …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133792
predict future returns, there is a significant relation between volatility spreads and expected stock returns. Portfolio level … the realized-implied volatility spread that can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. The results also provide … evidence for a significantly positive link between expected returns and the call-put options' implied volatility spread that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116882
) The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of those objections within the rational finance. We do not claim that those …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842392
Based on data until the mid 2000s, oil price changes were shown to predict international equity index returns with a negative predictive slope. Extending the sample to 2015, we document that this relationship has been reversed over the last ten years and therefore has not been stable over time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935742
The option implied volatility spread and skew predict stock returns. These variables also reflect the expected cost of … stock returns; however, the volatility spread and skew do not once this implied fee is considered. Results are similar for a … yet in stock prices. These findings indicate that the volatility spread and skew predict returns because they proxy for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855076
We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618