In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous...

Nitrendipine is an effective and safe calcium channel blocker for the treatment of mild to moderate hypertension. The aim of this work is to show that a model of a relation between nitrendipine plasma levels and pharmacodynamic effects can be composed and used for pressure drop prediction after...

Within a standard risk-based asset pricing framework with rational expectations, realized returns have two components: Predictable risk premiums and unpredictable shocks. In bad times, the price of risk increases. Hence, the predictable fraction of returns – and predictability – increases....

Within a standard risk-based asset pricing framework with rational expectations, realized returns have two components: Predictable risk premiums and unpredictable shocks. In bad times, the price of risk increases. Hence, the predictable fraction of returns - and predictability - increases....

Accurate predictions of hourly PM2.5 concentrations are crucial for preventing the harmful effects of air pollution. In this study, a new decomposition-ensemble framework incorporating the variational mode decomposition method (VMD), econometric forecasting method (autoregressive integrated...

Critics of Governor Michael Dukakis have suggested that this year?s $400 million overestimate of tax revenues in Massachusetts casts doubt on his putative managerial skills. In this paper, we carefully examine the entire Dukakis forecasting record. We find that the 1988 experience was "unusual?...