The ratio of long- to short-term dividend prices, “price ratio” (pr), predicts annual market return with an out-of-sample R2 of 19%, subsuming the predictive power of price-dividend ratio (pd). After controlling for pr, pd predicts dividend growth with an out-of-sample R2 of 30%. Our results...

In this paper, we examine the determinants of risk-sensitivity exhibited by humans and other animals. Our dependent measure is the proportion of respondents who choose a sure option over a risky option with equal expected value. We present a meta-analysis of human risk-preference data and...

This research examined whether people can accurately predict the risk preferences of others.Three experiments featuring different designs revealed a systematic bias: that participants predicted others to be more risk seeking than themselves in risky choices, regardless of whether the choices...

This research explores whether there are systematic cross-national differences in choice-inferred risk preferences between Americans and Chinese. Study 1 found(a) that the Chinese were signi®cantly more risk seeking than the Americans, yet(b) that both nationals predicted exactly the opposite...

Using a data set that combines trading records in a financial investment simulation with survey responses, this study provides evidence that a domain-specific variant of risk-taking propensity, namely risk taking in gambling (but not in investing) situations, predicts the volume of trades of...