This paper analyzes recession prediction markets from Intrade and PredictIt where individuals bet on the binary outcome of a recession occurring by a certain date. Using a time series of such historical recession prediction market data to measure macroeconomic risk in a variety of asset classes,...

This paper shows that a production network facilitates expectations-driven business cycles. Through input-output linkages, changes in expected demand can cause business-cycle fluctuations and endogenous movements in the Solow residual. When inputs must be purchased one period in advance,...

Mental illness, such as depression, is rampant and is affecting a person’s physical health, mental and social health. With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) a variety of ways to help mental health care providers be introduced, including psychiatrists to make informed decisions based...

We propose a parsimonious semiparametric method for macroeconomic forecasting during episodes of sudden changes. Based on the notion of clustering and similarity, we partition the time series into blocks, search for the closest blocks to the most recent block of observations, and with the...

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its...

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy...