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This paper examines the performance of two commonly applied bankruptcy prediction models, the accounting ratio-based Altman Z-Score model, and the structural Distance to Default model which currently underlies Morningstar's Financial Health Grade for public companies (Morningstar 2008)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156771
Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, New York University (NYU). He is also director of research in credit and debt markets at NYU's Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. An internationally recognized expert on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843583
We suggest a procedure to predict individual stock liquidity and study the relation between stock liquidity forecasts … and average stock returns. Our forecast model reduces the root-mean-squared error by 12% for the Amihud (2002) liquidity … measure compared to realized stock liquidity in the previous month. Our liquidity forecasts capture economically large changes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351379
Accurately forecasting volatility is key in many financial applications. In this study, I suggest that individuals … hits lead changes in market volatility. I show that a regressor based on search engine data can provide a meaningful …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917624
We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option implied variables for monthly S & P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) emerges as a strong predictor of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751188
This paper examines the relationship between volatility and the probability of occurrence of expected extreme returns … in the Canadian market. Four measures of volatility are examined: implied volatility from firm option prices, conditional … volatility calculated using an EGARCH model, idiosyncratic, and expected shortfall. A significantly positive relationship is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959255
forecasting power for firms' risk-factor exposures, implied costs of capital, liquidity, and future investments. We also apply our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012244502
evidence from the market for leveraged volatility (VIX) products. I find that the daily rebalancing imposes a substantial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846421
-professional investment community, that a “low” reading in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) or large decline alone are ample reasons to believe … that volatility will spike in the near future. While the Volatility Index can be a useful tool for investors and traders …, it is often misinterpreted and poorly used. This paper will demonstrate that the dispersion of the Volatility Index acts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958955
liquidity position. Finally, it investigates whether the idiosyncratic risk is priced in BRICS countries’ equity markets. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014307488