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An Onset of Cyclical Growth. Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016-2018

Averkiev, Vladimir - 2017

In Q 3-4 2016, Russia's economy entered the phase of cyclical growth from the lowest point of the business cycle, its typical feature being the unstable movement patterns of the main socioeconomic development indicators. Inflation hit its historic low. The ruble's strengthening boosted the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959655

Inflation : A New Hypothesis, Accurate 100 Year Regression Model & Forecast

Render, Michael - 2022

Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) approach, is presented, followed by a new hypothesis for inflation. Two-Dimensional QTM (2-D QTM …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322759

A note of caution on the relation between money growth and inflation

Berger, Helge; Karlsson, Sune; Österholm, Pär - 2023

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252440

Unusual shocks in our usual models

Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2022

and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a … new shock process where the shock loads on wedges associated with the model's usual shocks. Realizations of the Covid … shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375147

Combining judgment and models

Monti, Francesca - In: Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 42 (2010) 8, pp. 1641-1662

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008823661

The macroeconomic forecasting model of the MNB

Békési, László; Köber, Csaba; Kucsera, Henrik; … - 2016

The lessons of the financial and macroeconomic crisis of 2007-2008 made the development of a new macroeconomic forecasting model necessary in the MNB. The model represents a small open economy. It is based on the DSGE philosophy but it deviates from it at several points. The new features of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011571328

Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques

Hinterlang, Natascha; Hollmayr, Josef - 2021

This paper identiftes U.S. monetary and ftscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques. The algorithms are trained and verifted by employing simulated data from Markov-switching DSGE models, before they classify regimes from 1968-2017 using actual U.S. data. All machine learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012520524

Financial Aggregates as Conditioning Information for Australian Output and Inflation

Tallman, Ellis W.; Chandra, Naveen - 2014

This paper examines whether financial aggregates provide information useful for predicting real output growth and inflation, extending the inquiry conducted in Tallman and Chandra (1996). First, we investigate whether perfect knowledge of the future values of financial aggregates helps improve...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048578

Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?

Hofmann, Boris - 2006

This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295806

Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?

Hofmann, Boris - 2008

This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators as well as of a large range of economic and financial indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 considering standard bivariate forecasting models, factor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604913

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