yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in … negative inflation slope points to higher odds of a recession within a year. An aggressive removal of policy accommodation …

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation … uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model …

characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of … by term premiums, not expected short rates or inflation; 2) term premiums co-move more strongly across maturities than … is primarily the result of a decline of expected inflation and term premiums while expected future real rates have …

Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth, inflation, and short-term interest rates to approximate macroeconomic … priced in the cross section and drive the size and value premium, whereas inflation expectations serve as robust predictors …

Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth, inflation, and short-term interest rates to approximate macroeconomic … priced in the cross section and drive the size and value premium, whereas inflation expectations serve as robust predictors …